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金力永磁稀土行情簡(jiǎn)報(bào)1646期（總第162期）11-28~12-02

JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing 11-28~12-02

2016年第49周

Week 49, 2016

1.重要新聞簡(jiǎn)報(bào)Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市場(chǎng)金屬鐠釹和鏑鐵價(jià)格均有小幅上漲，鋱價(jià)格相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)價(jià)格:鐠釹金屬322-327元/KG，鏑鐵合金價(jià)格1245-1265元/KG，鋱金屬價(jià)格3900-3950元/KG。

This week the price of PrNd and DyFe in the rare earth market had a slight increase while Tb was relatively stable. The price at weekend from Asia metal presented as: PrNd 322-327 RMB/KG, DyFe 1245-1265 RMB/KG and Tb metal 3900-3950 RMB/KG.

2.業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

在經(jīng)過今年前三季度的低迷以后，11月下旬開始，稀土市場(chǎng)逐漸表現(xiàn)出走強(qiáng)的意愿，部分產(chǎn)品價(jià)格有所回升。此次價(jià)格出現(xiàn)反彈是繼5月底進(jìn)行商儲(chǔ)后的一次。雖然中間多次因?yàn)檎匍_收儲(chǔ)會(huì)議而出現(xiàn)上漲的苗頭，但都由于收儲(chǔ)會(huì)議的無(wú)果而終沒能實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈，此次價(jià)格反彈也是多種因素綜合作用下的結(jié)果。

After the downturn in the first three quarters of this year, the rare earth market gradually begins to show a willingness to be strong in late November with price rose of some products. It is the first time that price rebound after the commercial reserve at the end of May. Although there's rising signs repeatedly because of reserve meeting, it ultimately failed to achieve a rebound as no conclusion has made in the storage meeting and the rebound is the result under comprehensive effects.

分離廠停產(chǎn)的可能性加大。11月15日，五礦稀土確定了集中生產(chǎn)的經(jīng)營(yíng)方案，有針對(duì)性的安排所屬企業(yè)復(fù)產(chǎn)與生產(chǎn)調(diào)整。根據(jù)往年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看，臨近年底，在各個(gè)企業(yè)的冶煉分離指標(biāo)都基本用完的情況下，其他大企業(yè)也很有可能會(huì)緊隨五礦稀土的腳步，宣布各自旗下分離企業(yè)全部或部分停產(chǎn)的計(jì)劃，如此一來(lái)，市場(chǎng)上稀土產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)將會(huì)減少。

First is the bigger possibility of separation plant discontinued. On November 15th, Minmetals rare earth ultimately determined the concentration production management plan, targeted arrange the owned enterprises to resume production and adjustment of production. Based on past experience, near the end of the year, the index of smelting separation for each enterprise basically run out of the situation, the other big companies are also likely to follow the footsteps of Minmetals rare earth, announced the discontinued production plan of all or part of their separation enterprise, so that the supply of rare earth products in the market will be reduced. 

其次，人民幣兌美元的匯率持續(xù)下跌，有利于稀土產(chǎn)品出口。據(jù)中國(guó)海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2016年1~10月，中國(guó)稀土的出口總量為38435噸，同比增長(zhǎng)43.7%，今年前10個(gè)月，稀土出口量同比增長(zhǎng)除了正常的需求以及取消出口配額和關(guān)稅以外，匯率的持續(xù)下跌也起到了一定的促進(jìn)作用。

Second, the RMB against the USD continued to fall, which is conducive to the export of rare earth products. The customs data shows that from January to October 2016, China total exports of rare earth was 38,435 tons with an increase of 43.7%. The first 10 months of this year, exports growth is not only because of the normal demand and the abolition of export quotas & the tariff, the continued decline in the exchange rate also played a certain role in promoting.

稀土收儲(chǔ)預(yù)期加強(qiáng)。近期幾家稀土大企業(yè)動(dòng)作頻頻，從市場(chǎng)各方面反饋的消息來(lái)看，近期關(guān)于稀土收儲(chǔ)的會(huì)議或許會(huì)重啟，此次會(huì)議各方就價(jià)格問題達(dá)成一致的可能性比較大，稀土收儲(chǔ)的預(yù)期在增加，但無(wú)論結(jié)果如何，在收儲(chǔ)信息的帶動(dòng)下，市場(chǎng)肯定會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)。大部分企業(yè)在經(jīng)歷了全年的虧損后，稀土收儲(chǔ)將成為企業(yè)扭虧為盈的重要舉措，因此，主要稀土企業(yè)都樂于推動(dòng)收儲(chǔ)工作盡快啟動(dòng)，特別是一些業(yè)績(jī)?nèi)匀惶潛p的上市公司更為積極主動(dòng)。隨著稀土收儲(chǔ)的預(yù)期不斷增強(qiáng)，業(yè)內(nèi)商家也減少出貨，稀土產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)相對(duì)比較緊張。

Finally, rare earth reserve is expected to be strengthened. Recently several large rare earth enterprise act frequently, feedback from various aspects of the market news, a purchasing and storage of rare earth meeting may restart recently, the possibility of the parties to reach an agreement on a price is relatively large, the purchasing and storage expectation is increasing, but no matter what the result is, the market will certainly fluctuate driven by the information of storage. Most of the enterprises had gone through the loss of this year and the purchasing and storage of rare earth will become the important measure for the enterprises to turn losses into gains, therefore, major rare earth enterprises are willing to promote the starting of purchasing and storage work as soon as possible, especially the performance of some listed companies with deficit. With rare earth purchasing and storage expectation increased, some merchants also reduce shipments and rare earth products supply is relatively tight now.

在停產(chǎn)、收儲(chǔ)、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息、人民幣匯率下跌、商家囤貨等多種因素的刺激下，稀土價(jià)格在11月中下旬出現(xiàn)了一次小幅上漲，鐠釹、鏑、鋱等部分產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格開始反彈，詢價(jià)有所增加，但還是比較有限。未來(lái)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，稀土產(chǎn)品價(jià)格將回升至什么程度以及能夠保持多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，業(yè)內(nèi)還是持悲觀態(tài)度者較多，因此，此次價(jià)格反彈的幅度和持續(xù)的時(shí)間仍然不容。

By the stimulation of a variety of factors such as discontinued production, purchasing and storage, US Federal Reserve hike, RMB exchange rate fell, businesses stockpile, etc., there has been a slight increase for rare earth prices at the end of November, PrNd, Dy, Tb and other parts of the product prices began to rebound as well as the enquiries, but the turnover is still relatively limited. The next coming period, what extents will the price of rare earth products rise and how long can remain is still a question. The insiders are still more pessimistic, so the price rebound magnitude and the duration of time is still not optimistic.

3.趨勢(shì)圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2016年12月02日

Dec. 2nd,2016

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!