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金力永磁稀土行情簡(jiǎn)報(bào)1645期（總第161期）11-21~11-25

JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing11-21~11-25

2016年第48周

Week 48, 2016

1.重要新聞簡(jiǎn)報(bào)Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市場(chǎng)金屬鏑鐵和鋱價(jià)格有小幅上漲，鐠釹價(jià)格相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)價(jià)格:鐠釹金屬317-322元/KG，鏑鐵合金價(jià)格1240-1260元/KG，鋱金屬價(jià)格3900-3950元/KG。

This week the price of DyFe metal and Tb metal had a slight increase while PrNd remained relatively stable. The price at the weekend from Asia metal presented as: PrNd 317-322 RMB/KG, DyFe 1240-1260 RMB/KG and Tb metal 3900-3950 RMB/KG.

2.業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

本周市場(chǎng)整體呈現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勢(shì)震蕩格局，市場(chǎng)多頭主力仍較好的把握市場(chǎng)節(jié)奏。整體來(lái)看，在經(jīng)濟(jì)企穩(wěn)回升和政策利好預(yù)期的支撐下，市場(chǎng)中期上漲趨勢(shì)并未改變，但短期消化技術(shù)壓力和不利因素影響下震蕩依舊難免。

This week the market showed a strong shock pattern and market bulls still grasped the rhythm of the market. From the whole point of view, under the support of economic stabilization & recovery and policy positive expectations, the bullish trend in the mid- market has not been changed, but the shock is still inevitable affected by the short-term digestion technical pressure and unfavorable factors.

稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整取得突破。一是產(chǎn)業(yè)集中度大幅提高，稀土冶煉分離企業(yè)從99家壓縮到59家，6家稀土集團(tuán)主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)的格局初步形成，整合了全國(guó)23家稀土礦山中的22家、59家冶煉分離企業(yè)中的54家，扭轉(zhuǎn)了“多、小、散"的局面，冶煉分離產(chǎn)能從40萬(wàn)噸壓縮到30萬(wàn)噸。二是產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化，以資源開(kāi)采、冶煉分離和初級(jí)產(chǎn)品加工為主的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)加快向以中材料和應(yīng)用產(chǎn)品為主的方向轉(zhuǎn)變。三是產(chǎn)業(yè)布局趨于合理。圍繞資源地建成包頭、贛州、涼山、龍巖等稀土資源開(kāi)采和冶煉分離基地，產(chǎn)能分別占全國(guó)90%、60%以上；圍繞消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)建成寧波、廈門(mén)、成都、包頭等稀土應(yīng)用產(chǎn)業(yè)基地，稀土磁性、催化、發(fā)光材料產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模分別占全國(guó)70%、50%、45%以上。

First of all, structural adjustment of the rare earth industry had achieved a breakthrough. One is the industrial concentration had been significantly improved, the number of smelting separation enterprises in rare earth industry had been decreased from 99 to 59. Then the market pattern led by the six rare earth groups has been preliminary formed. The data showed that 22 enterprises among the 23 rare earth mine enterprises together with 54 enterprises among the 59 smelting separation enterprises had been integrated and that had reversed the situation of "many, small, scattered" as well as the capacity of smelting separation was reduced from 400,000 tons to 300,000 tons. The second one is the product structure had been further optimized. The industrial structure based on resource exploitation, smelting separation and primary product processing had been fast adjusted into the direction based on medium & high end materials and application products. The third one is the industrial distribution tends to be reasonable. Rare earth resources mining and smelting separation bases had been built around the resources of Baotou, Ganzhou, Liangshan, Longyan, etc., the production capacity partly accounted for more than 90% and 60%; rare earth application industry bases had been built around the consumer market in Xiamen, Ningbo, Chengdu, Baotou etc., rare earth magnetism, catalysis, luminescent materials industry accounted for more than 70%, 50% and 45%.　　

其次，稀土價(jià)格迎來(lái)階段拐點(diǎn)。11月 份以來(lái)，在經(jīng)歷過(guò)前期的大幅殺跌以及利好不斷的多重刺激下，近期隨著銷(xiāo)量的日趨升溫，稀土價(jià)格進(jìn)行了新一輪上揚(yáng)。由于國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始企穩(wěn)回升，對(duì)稀土市場(chǎng)的 回暖跡象漸顯。此輪稀土價(jià)格上揚(yáng)來(lái)之不易。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，我國(guó)稀土行業(yè)一直受到私自開(kāi)采的困擾，私自開(kāi)采造成了稀土市場(chǎng)上嚴(yán)重的供大于求，導(dǎo)致稀土價(jià)格下滑。 隨著江西贛州地區(qū)打擊“黑稀土"行動(dòng)的深入，未來(lái)稀土價(jià)格仍有進(jìn)一步上漲預(yù)期。

Secondly, the rare earth market also ushered in the stage of “inflection point". Since November, after a period of sharp sell as well as the positive multiple stimulation, and with the increasing sales of heating up, the price of rare earth had a new round of rise. Signs of a turnaround for the rare earth is gradually showing because the domestic economic is starting to rise. The rare earth price increase of this round is not easy. For quite long time, our rare earth industry had suffered from the trouble of mining without permission which caused the rare earth market being seriously oversupply and then led to the rare earth price decreased. With the deep action against “illegal rare earth" in Ganzhou, the future price of rare earth is still expected to rise.　　

政策利好催化密集出臺(tái)。近日，工信部接連發(fā)布了《有色金屬工業(yè)十三五發(fā)展規(guī)劃》和《稀土行業(yè)發(fā)展十三五規(guī)劃》兩個(gè)重磅文件。稀土“十三五"規(guī)劃的提 出，將有助于稀土過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的出清，從而改善供需局面，利好六大稀土集團(tuán)。與此同時(shí)，稀土國(guó)儲(chǔ)經(jīng)歷前兩次的流標(biāo)和取消后，年內(nèi)第三次啟動(dòng)并實(shí)施的可能性較 大，這將對(duì)稀土價(jià)格形成明顯刺激。隨著年底臨近，國(guó)儲(chǔ)重啟預(yù)期逐步升溫。

The last one, policy favorable catalysis was intensively introduced. Recently, two important files which are The 13th Five-year Development Plan of Nonferrous Metal Industry and 13th Five-year Plan of Rare Earth Industry Development were successively released by MIIT. The proposal of rare earth “13th Five-year plan" would be helpful in clearing excess production capacity of rare earth and improve the situation of supply & demand which is good for the Six Rare Earth Group. In the meantime, after the experience of the previous bidding failing and cancelling, there's still a big possibility for the third chance to start and implement the national purchase for rare earth industry within this year. And that would significantly stimulate the formation of rare earth prices. With the end of the year approaching, the restarting of national purchase is expected to gradually rise.

3.趨勢(shì)圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2016年11月25日

Nov. 25, 2016

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!