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JL MAG Rare-Earth Industry Price Briefing 03-11~03-15

Week 11, 2019

1.重要新聞簡報Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市場行情，鐠釹價格繼續(xù)小幅下跌，鏑鐵和鋱價格繼續(xù)保持上漲趨勢。 亞洲金屬網(wǎng)價格: 鐠釹金屬價格367-372元/KG (上海有色，370-375元/KG)，鏑鐵合金價格1320-1340元/KG (上海有色，1330-1380元/KG)，金屬鋱價格3860-3910元/KG (上海有色，3950-4000元/KG)。

This week, price of PrNd fell slightly while DyFe and Tb price continued their rising trend. Price from Asian Metal at this weekend presented: PrNd metal 367-372RMB/KG (price from SMM: 370-375 RMB/KG), DyFe alloy 1320-1340RMB/KG (price from SMM: 1330-1380RMB/KG), and Tb metal 3860-3910RMB/KG (price from SMM: 3950-4000RMB/KG).

英國《每日新聞》援引Lynas澳大利亞總部的一份報告稱，該公司在9月2日前清理其廢棄物庫存方面遇到了困難。該公司的牌照也將于9月2日到期續(xù)期。從現(xiàn)在的跡象來看，萊納斯馬來西亞工廠在經(jīng)歷了變動后將不得不面臨處理掉之前殘留廢物的問題，但就已有信息來看，萊納斯在這方面似乎是無計可施。按壞情況預(yù)計，假如馬來西亞工廠9月關(guān)停后，萊納斯有礦可采、無地可分離，雖然國外比如印度有一定分離產(chǎn)能，但國外稀土產(chǎn)品將避免不了地發(fā)生短缺，由此國內(nèi)稀土礦來源和稀土產(chǎn)品去向格局將發(fā)生一定變化。（稀土在線）

Daily News from UK quoted a report from Lynas Australia headquarter that the company had difficulties clearing its waste stockpiles by September 02nd. The company's license will also expire and to be renewed on September 02nd. From the current evidence, the Lynas Malaysian plant will have to face the problem of disposing of the remaining waste after the change, but according to the information available, Lynas seems to be unable to do anything about it. According to worst-case scenario, if Malaysia's factories shut down in September, Lynas will have mines to be mined but no place to be separated. Although foreign countries such as India have certain separation capacity, foreign rare earth products will inevitably be in short supply, thus the domestic rare earth sources and the pattern of rare earth products will change. (Rare Earth Online)

2. 業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

3月15日，工信部官網(wǎng)發(fā)布“工業(yè)和信息化部、自然資源部關(guān)于下達(dá)2019年一批稀土開采、冶煉分離總量控制計劃的通知"。稀土是國家嚴(yán)格實行開采、冶煉分離總量控制管理的產(chǎn)品，任何單位和個人不得無計劃和超計劃生產(chǎn)。2019年度一批稀土開采、冶煉分離總量控制計劃按2018年度指標(biāo)的50%下達(dá)，分別為60000噸、57500噸，二批計劃將綜合考慮市場需求和各集團的執(zhí)行情況，于2019年6月底前下達(dá)。

On March 15th, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice of the Ministry of Natural Resources & the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the first batch of total control plan for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2019". Rare earth is a product strictly controlled by the state in the total amount of mining, smelting and separation. No company or individual may produce without planning or beyond planning. The first batch of total control plan for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2019 was issued according to 50% of the 2018 index, 60,000 tons and 57,500 tons respectively. The second batch plan will be issued by the end of June 2019, taking market demand and the implementation of each group into account.

海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示, 2019年1月混合碳酸稀土進(jìn)口量是1480噸，其中緬甸進(jìn)口量是963噸，相比2018年12月小幅下降。自從2018年11月騰沖海關(guān)開始實施進(jìn)口限制措施以來，相比2018年前十個月每月平均進(jìn)口量2395噸減少近一半以上，進(jìn)口數(shù)量下降趨勢明顯。2018年從緬甸進(jìn)口的離子型稀土礦約2.6萬噸（核算稀土氧化物在2.3萬噸，其中鏑含量在850噸，鋱含量在130噸）,占國內(nèi)中重稀土礦消費量的比例接近50%。預(yù)計2019年從緬甸進(jìn)口的離子型稀土礦的下降或?qū)p少一半。

Customs data show that the import volume of mixed rare earth carbonate in January 2019 was 1480 tons, of which the import volume of Myanmar was 963 tons, a slight decrease compared with December 2018. Since Tengchong Customs began to implement import restriction measures in November 2018, the import volume has been reduced by more than half compared with the average monthly volume of 2395 tons in the first ten months of 2018, and the decline trend of import volume is obvious. In 2018, about 26,000 tons of ionic rare earth ore were imported from Myanmar (accounting for 23,000 tons of rare earth oxides, including 850 tons of Dy and 130 tons of Tb), accounting for nearly 50% of the domestic consumption of heavy rare earth ores. It is expected that the decrease in imports of ionic rare earth ores from Myanmar will be halved in 2019.

業(yè)內(nèi)人士周知，緬甸礦進(jìn)口期現(xiàn)只剩近兩個月時間，而南方離子型稀土礦的開采成本居高不下，即使目前國內(nèi)中重稀土價格持續(xù)上漲，也不足以支撐商家進(jìn)行國內(nèi)礦開采，預(yù)計國內(nèi)中重稀土開采量短期內(nèi)并不會有明顯改善，主要來源依舊依靠緬甸礦，因此騰沖海關(guān)嚴(yán)查的消息對國內(nèi)中重稀土企業(yè)商家心態(tài)影響較大，短期內(nèi)看漲情緒高漲。

Industry insiders know that the import period of Myanmar's mines is only about two months, while the mining cost of ionic rare earth mines in the south of China is still high. Even if the domestic price of heavy rare earth keeps rising, it is not enough to support businesses to carry out domestic mining. It is expected that the domestic mining volume of heavy rare earth will not improve significantly in the short term. The main source is still Myanmar's mines, so the news of the stringent censorship from Tengchong Customs has a big impact on the mentality of domestic heavy rare earth enterprises and businessmen, and the bullish mood is rising in the short term.

雖需求端增長緩慢，小幅抑制了鏑鋱產(chǎn)品價格的上漲速度，但供給端的收縮及下游庫存的消耗，預(yù)計鏑鋱后市還有上行空間，且在5月份緬甸礦進(jìn)口消息確定之前上漲動力仍舊強勁。（百川資訊）

Despite the slow growth from demand side which has a slight restraint on the rising speed of Dy and Tb product prices, the contraction of supply side and the consumption of downstream stocks are expected to leave room of growth for Dy and Tb in the future market, and the momentum for increase is still strong until the news of Myanmar's mining imports is confirmed in May. (Baichuan Info)

北方稀土高科技股份有限公司發(fā)布3月稀土產(chǎn)品掛牌價格

Listing price of March from China Northern Rare Earth

南方稀土發(fā)布3月11日稀土氧化物掛牌價

Listing price on March 11 from China Southern Rare Earth

單位：萬元/噸（出廠含稅價）

Unit: 10,000RMB/ton (EXW price incl. VAT)

3. 趨勢圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2019年3月15日

March 15th, 2019

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!