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JL MAG Rare-Earth Industry Price Briefing 01-08~01-12

Week 2，2024

1. 重要新聞簡報Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市場行情，鐠釹、金屬釹、鏑鐵合金和金屬鋱價格出現(xiàn)小幅下跌。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)周末價格: 鐠釹金屬價格495-500元/KG；金屬釹價格495-505元/KG；鏑鐵合金價格2020-2040元/KG；金屬鋱價格7800-8000元/KG。

This week, the prices of PrNd, Nd metal, DyFe alloy and Tb metal fell slightly. Prices from Asian Metal at this weekend presented: PrNd metal 495-500 RMB/KG; Nd metal 495-505 RMB/KG; DyFe alloy 2020-2040 RMB/KG; Tb metal 7800-8000 RMB/KG.

2. 業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

本周（1.8-12）稀土市場開局即暴跌，在靜待觀望之后，低采有所活躍，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈各端從當前價位預判讓利已至下線，故低位之下成交有所放量，新的走勢平臺破“4”已現(xiàn)。

This week (1.8-1.12) the rare earth market began to plunge, after waiting to see, low mining has been active, and various ends of the industry chain have predicted that the yield has reached the bottom line from the current price. Therefore, trading volume has increased based on the low level, and a new trend that platform has broken the "4".

分離企業(yè)：作為源頭，當前很多企業(yè)處在盈虧線以內(nèi)掙扎，雖然礦價及廢料讓利最為明顯，但生產(chǎn)周期使然，價格下浮太快，導致氧化物成本仍處高點位，重稀土鏑鋱在缺乏需求支撐下，價格下滑尤其迅猛。

Separation of enterprises: as the source, many enterprises are currently struggling within the profit and loss line. Although mining prices and waste concessions are the most obvious, due to the production cycle, prices fluctuate too quickly, resulting in high oxide costs. In the absence of demand support, the prices of heavy rare earth Dy and Tb have slid particularly rapidly.

金屬企業(yè)：是產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的重災區(qū)，產(chǎn)能調(diào)整過程中，同質化競爭相當嚴峻，盡管現(xiàn)貨庫存量不大，但是低價搶占市場份額的境況，使得冶煉企業(yè)如履薄冰，再以當前價位已不敢放空，謹慎對補，以銷訂料。

Metal enterprises: is the industry chain of the disaster area, during the process of capacity adjustment, homogeneous competition is quite fierce. Although the spot inventory is not large, the situation of seizing market share at low prices makes smelting enterprises feel like walking on thin ice. Even at the current price, they are no longer willing to let go, so they are cautious in supplementing and selling materials.

磁材企業(yè)：季度接單，隨接隨跌，接單成本不斷“超前”，只能謹慎做空，中型企業(yè)有單可做也僅在保本維持，小企業(yè)縮量生產(chǎn)或選擇提前放假，大企業(yè)年前訂單表現(xiàn)一般開工率勉強尚可。在終端訂單緩慢釋放，對于稀土的下游企業(yè)雖仍在壓價也有難言之隱，且基于現(xiàn)有訂單，備貨普遍不會過多。

Magnetic material enterprises: Quarterly orders are accepted, with prices falling as they are accepted. The cost of accepting orders is constantly "ahead of schedule", and can only be cautiously shorted. Medium sized enterprises have orders to do but only maintain their breakeven. Small enterprises may reduce production or choose to take early holidays. Large enterprises generally have decent operating rates for orders before the year. In the slow release of terminal orders, downstream enterprises of rare earths are still pressing prices, which is difficult to express. Moreover, based on existing orders, stocking is generally not excessive.

貿(mào)易企業(yè)：如果說，在漲價過程中，貿(mào)易企業(yè)“追漲提前”，那么在跌價過程中，“止跌割肉”就為常態(tài)，本輪下行速度之快超出想象，貿(mào)易企業(yè)也紛紛深割止痛。

Trade enterprises: If during the price increase process, trade enterprises "chase up ahead", then in the price decrease process, "Stop the decline and cut the flesh" is the norm. The speed of this round of decline is beyond imagination, and trade enterprises are also deeply cutting to relieve pain.

后市預測：本周后期，由于龍頭企業(yè)的穩(wěn)價，使得鐠釹價格趨穩(wěn)，此前由做空情緒拉低的價格，再次達到心里低價的平衡點后，紛紛有所試探抬頭，盡管上下游的情緒由做空到謹慎，甚至認為年前備貨力度恐僅僅穩(wěn)固現(xiàn)有狀態(tài)，但仍有部分業(yè)內(nèi)對年后抱有理性幅度的期待。（瑞道稀土資訊）

Future market forecast: later this week, due to the stable price of leading enterprises, the price of PrNd will stabilize. After the price was previously lowered by short selling sentiment, it has once again reached the balance point of low prices in the mind, and has begun to explore and rise. Although the sentiment in the upstream and downstream has shifted from short selling to caution, and even believes that the pre-year stocking level may only stabilize the current state, there are still some industries with rational expectations for the post-year period. (Ruidao Rare Earth Information) 

3.趨勢圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2024年01月12日

January 12^th, 2024

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!