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金力永磁稀土行情簡報201712期（總第178期）04-10~04-14

JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing 04-10~04-14

2017年第15周

Week 15, 2017

1.重要新聞簡報Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市場價格鐠釹和鋱均有小幅上漲，鏑鐵價格相對穩(wěn)定。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)價格: 鐠釹金屬362-365元/KG，鏑鐵合金價格1230-1250元/KG，鋱金屬價格4250-4300元/KG。

This week the market price of PrNd and Tb had increased slightly and the price of DyFe was relatively stable. Prices from Asian Metal of this weekend presented: PrNd 362-365RMB/KG, DyFe 1230-1250RMB/KG, Tb metal 4250-4300RMB/KG.

4月13日從工信部獲悉，工信部下達2017年一批稀土生產(chǎn)總量控制計劃，其中礦產(chǎn)品計劃在52500噸，冶煉分離產(chǎn)品計劃在50075噸。（2016年一批稀土生產(chǎn)總控制計劃為，全國礦產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)總量控制在52500噸,冶煉分離產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)總量控制在45000噸）

On April 13th, the MIIT has launched the first batch of 2017 total rare earth production control schedule, which includes 52500 tons minerals products and 50075 tons melting separation products. (The first batch of 2016 total rare earth production control schedule is 52500 tons minerals products and 45000 tons melting separation products.)

2.業(yè)內人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

近幾個月來，國內稀土價格一路向好，其周期性行情經(jīng)歷了一波漲勢。以3月份為例，輕重稀土價格繼續(xù)上漲，氧化鋱報價315萬元/噸至320萬元/噸，每噸漲10萬元，金屬鋱報價415萬元/噸至420萬元/噸，每噸漲10萬元。輕稀土方面，鐠釹產(chǎn)品集體漲價，氧化鐠釹報價28萬元/噸至28.5萬元/噸，每噸漲0.2萬元，金屬鐠釹報價36萬元/噸至36.5萬元/噸，每噸漲0.2萬元，其漲幅近10%。

In the recent few months, the domestic rare earth price is quite good, which has experienced a periodic increasing. Use the price in March as an example, the price of Tb oxide was 3,150,000RMB/T-3,200,000RMB/T, which increased 100,000 RMB/T; the price of Tb metal was 4,150,000RMB/T-4,200,000RMB/T, which increased 100,000 RMB/T. And in the light rare earth aspect, all the prices of PrNd products had increased, the price of PrNd oxide was 280,000RMB/T-285,000RMB/T, which increased 2,000 RMB/T; the price of PrNd metal was 360,000RMB/T-365,000RMB/T, which increased 2,000 RMB/T and the increasing rate is almost 10%.

綜合來看，稀土行情的變化主要基于三個方面，一是自1月份以來，各地稀土“打黑"行動陸續(xù)推進，再加上環(huán)保督查從嚴，將有效整頓行業(yè)；二是清明節(jié)前稀土收儲中標成功，數(shù)量和價格均高于市場預期；三是節(jié)后下游需求恢復，廠家生產(chǎn)采購量增加，助推價格上漲。

Overall, the price changing of the rare earth market are mainly based on three aspects, first, starting from January, the special operation on illegal rare earth as well as strictly environmental protection supervision; second, rare earth purchasing and storage has won the bidding before Qingming festival and the quantity/price are higher than market expectation; third, the downstream demand has recovered and purchasing increased, which help to boost the price.

客觀地說，近年來，稀土價格不斷受挫，價格的持續(xù)下跌，主要在于當前稀土行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩嚴重以及部分不法分子對稀土資源的非法開采甚至走私等一系列問題。雖然國家針對稀土業(yè)一系列政策的出臺，起到了推動稀土行情的發(fā)展，但稀土周期力量并未完全釋放。目前，稀土業(yè)后續(xù)的政策組合拳還會出現(xiàn)，其周期性行情變化將引人關注。

Objectively speaking, the rare earth prices constantly suffer a setback and continuously decrease in the past few years. The main reasons were excess production capacity, illegal mining and smuggling. Even our government has issued a series of policy on rare earth which promote the development of rare earth market, the cycle power has not fully released.

針對稀土行情周期的判斷，分析人士指出，要分為大周期和小周期觀察，大周期就是國內稀土業(yè)轉型升級的陣痛期，轉型升級完成以后，稀土業(yè)將有機會進入大周期的增長。在這個進程中，從去年11月到現(xiàn)在，稀土業(yè)正經(jīng)歷一輪小周期，相當于大周期放緩中的一波“小陽春"行情。

The insider point out that the rare earth market can be divided into major cycle and minor cycle. The major cycle is the transformation and upgrading period of domestic rare earth industry, once it is finished, the rare earth industry will enter into a major cycle increasing. From November last year till now, the rare earth is going through a minor cycle, which is a slowdown “minor spring" in major cycle.

至于稀土這一波“小陽春"行情能夠持續(xù)多久，有觀點認為，有望持續(xù)到今年年中以后，這也和國內工業(yè)企業(yè)指數(shù)上行趨勢相匹配。究其原因，主要是工業(yè)庫存由負轉正，但仍比歷史平均水平低，所以企業(yè)補庫存還會持續(xù)一段時間。因此如果價格能夠持續(xù)增長，稀土產(chǎn)能隨時都可以恢復，其行情仍有上漲空間。

The analysts do not know how long the “minor spring" will last and it is thought that it will last till the middle of this year which is matched with the domestic industrial enterprise upward trend. Mainly reason is the industrial inventory turn from negative to positive, but they are still lower than the historical average, so enterprise inventory filling up will continue for a period of time. Therefore if prices could continue to grow, rare earth production capacity can be restored at any time and the prices will still have a rising space.

3.趨勢圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2017年04月14日

April 14th, 2017

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!