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JL MAG Rare-Earth Industry Price Briefing 10-25~10-29

Week 44，2021

1.    重要新聞簡(jiǎn)報(bào)Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市場(chǎng)行情，鐠釹、金屬釹、鋱和鏑鐵的價(jià)格小幅上漲。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)周末價(jià)格: 鐠釹金屬價(jià)格875-885元/KG；金屬釹價(jià)格915-925元/KG；鏑鐵合金價(jià)格2830-2850元/KG；金屬鋱價(jià)格12250-12300元/KG。

This week, prices of PrNd, Nd metal, Tb and DyFe have a slightly rise. Prices from Asian Metal at the end of this weekend presented: PrNd metal 875-885 RMB/KG, Nd metal 915-925 RMB/KG, DyFe alloy 2,830-2,850 RMB/KG, and Tb metal 12,250-12,300/KG.

2.   業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

本周稀土價(jià)格大踏步前行，回顧市場(chǎng)表象如下：周初，鐠釹產(chǎn)品繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)健，成交與價(jià)格繼續(xù)放量，稀交所開(kāi)盤即封頂80萬(wàn)元/噸金屬鐠釹成交，此時(shí)氧化鐠釹67-68萬(wàn)元/噸成為主流，市場(chǎng)整體詢單熱度很高，金屬?gòu)S也在拿貨。

This week rare earth prices stride forward, market appearance is as follows:

at the beginning of the week, PrNd products continued to remain stable, transaction and price continued to be large. At the opening of the rare earth stock exchange, the transaction of PrNd metal was capped at 800,000 yuan/ ton, and PrNd oxide 670,000-680,000 yuan/ ton became the mainstream. The overall inquiries in the market was very high, and the metal factory was also taking goods. 

本周中期（26-27日），稀土價(jià)格全線飆漲，鐠釹氧化物及金屬上午報(bào)價(jià)，下午打破，再出高價(jià)，市場(chǎng)報(bào)價(jià)極其混亂，所有參與者都在追高價(jià)成交。與此同時(shí)，緬甸開(kāi)關(guān)未決，鏑鋱跟節(jié)奏而動(dòng)，氧化鋱重回950萬(wàn)元/噸，惜售不報(bào)價(jià)蔓延市場(chǎng)，成交價(jià)節(jié)節(jié)攀升。整個(gè)周中期，稀土價(jià)格在混亂中不斷沖高。此時(shí)，整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈在對(duì)鎖訂單中維持，從分離到金屬到磁材，每一環(huán)的鎖單后詢貨，也僅僅是為了維持長(zhǎng)單。

In the middle of this week (26-27 days), the prices of rare earths soared across the board. PrNd oxides and metals were quoted in the morning and high prices were offered in the afternoon. The market quotation was extremely chaotic, and all participants were chasing high prices for transactions. At the same time, the opening of Myanmar customs is still pending. Dy and Tb follow the rise, and Tb oxide returns to 9.5 million yuan/ ton. The market is generally not so willing to quote or sell, and the transaction price rises. Throughout the middle of the week, rare earth prices continued to rise in chaos. At this time, the whole industrial chain is maintained in the lock order. From separation to metal to magnetic materials, each time the goods are queried after locked order, only to maintain the long order. 

周末期（28-29日）瘋漲的價(jià)格，讓下游駐足觀望，漲價(jià)邏輯能接受，漲價(jià)速度和瘋狂程度卻一言難盡，當(dāng)下游多選擇觀望謹(jǐn)慎的時(shí)候，當(dāng)稀交所成交持穩(wěn)甚至流拍的時(shí)候，當(dāng)廢料開(kāi)始畏高出貨，甚至貿(mào)易商也開(kāi)始小量放貨的時(shí)候，價(jià)格已有些微妙了，鐠釹價(jià)格開(kāi)始緩慢回調(diào)，高價(jià)成交開(kāi)始回落，主動(dòng)出價(jià)給出相對(duì)合理價(jià)位，觀望愈濃愈難穩(wěn)。反之，鏑鋱繼續(xù)放量攀高位，少量長(zhǎng)單客戶簽單可見(jiàn)，價(jià)位隨行就市，當(dāng)鏑鋱走至此價(jià)位下，貿(mào)易商的心態(tài)也在擔(dān)憂及期盼中徘徊，任何一個(gè)利空消息，或許都將刺破價(jià)格的高位。

The soaring price in the weekend (28-29) made the downstream stop and wait, the price increase logic was acceptable, but the speed and madness of price increase were hard to say. When the downstream chose to wait and see carefully, when the rare earth exchange traded steadily or even sold, when the waste began to fear high price level and deliver, and even when traders began to release small quantities of goods, the price was a little subtle. The price of PrNd began to slow down, and the high price transaction began to fall. The active bid gave a relatively reasonable price. The thicker the wait-and-see, the more difficult it is to stabilize. On the contrary, Dy and Tb continue to climb to a high level in large quantities. It can be seen from a small number of long order customers that the price follows the market. When Dy and Tb go below this price, the mentality of traders is also wandering in worry and expectation. Any bad news may pierce the high price. 

后續(xù)預(yù)測(cè)：鐠釹自9月28日起漲開(kāi)始，至今一月有余，但尤以本周漲幅巨大，價(jià)格虛高部分雖在周末期已刺破，部分貿(mào)易商沖刺出貨的速度也許會(huì)加速鐠釹回落的速度。主流大廠在本輪波動(dòng)中始終保持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，以長(zhǎng)單老客戶供應(yīng)為主，稀交所放量的100噸金屬鐠釹，在一定程度上緩解了市場(chǎng)的虛高價(jià)格，堪稱本輪價(jià)格指引的風(fēng)向標(biāo)。鏑鋱價(jià)格均處于歷史高位，且下游的僵持與對(duì)峙狀態(tài)仍舊十分強(qiáng)烈，另一方面受鐠釹及開(kāi)關(guān)消息影響，鏑鋱可能隨時(shí)面臨調(diào)整風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。（瑞道稀土資訊）

Follow up forecast: Pr and Nd have been rising since September 28 and have been more than one month so far, but especially this week, the increase is huge. Although the falsely high price has been pierced at the weekend, the speed of shipment by some traders may accelerate the decline of Pr and Nd. Major mainstream manufacturers have always been cautious in this round of fluctuations, focusing on the supply of long-term single and old customers. The big volume of 100 tons of metal Pr and Nd in the rare earth exchange market has alleviated the falsely high price to a certain extent, which can be called the wind vane of this round of price guidance. Dy and Tb prices are at historical highs, and the stalemate and confrontation in the downstream are still very strong. On the other hand, Dy and Tb may face adjustment risk at any time due to the news of PrNd and the opening Myanmar customs. (Ruidow Rare Earth Info)

南方稀土發(fā)布10月25日稀土氧化物掛牌價(jià)

Listing Price of Rare Earth Oxides on Oct. 25th from China Southern Rare Earth

單位：萬(wàn)元/噸（出廠含稅價(jià)）

Unit: 10 thousand RMB/ ton (EXW price incl. tax)

3.    趨勢(shì)圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2021年10月29日

 Oct 29^th, 2021

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!