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金力永磁稀土行情簡(jiǎn)報(bào)201610期（總第126期）03-13~03-19

JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing 03-13~03-19

2016年第12周

Week 12, 2016

1. 重要新聞簡(jiǎn)報(bào)Briefing of Important News

n 本周稀土市場(chǎng)鐠釹鏑鐵價(jià)格均有所下滑，鋱價(jià)格相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)價(jià)格:鐠釹金屬330-335元/KG，鏑鐵合金價(jià)格1230-1260元/KG，鋱金屬價(jià)格3050-3150元/KG。

This week the prices of PrNd and DyFe declined while the price of Tb was relatively stable. Prices from Asian Metal present: PrNd 330-335 RMB/KG, DyFe 1230-1260RMB/KG, Tb metal 3050-3150RMB/KG.

n 由于稀土價(jià)格低迷導(dǎo)致萊納公司現(xiàn)金流持續(xù)疲軟，該集團(tuán)公布損失共計(jì)9.6億美元。

Cash flow of Lynas was continuously weak because of the low rare earth price and they announced a total loss of $960 million.

n 據(jù)中國(guó)汽車工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)消息，2016年1－2月，新能源汽車產(chǎn)銷37937輛和35726輛，同比均增長(zhǎng)1.7倍。

According to the news from China Automobile Industry Association, the production and marketing of the new energy vehicles had achieved 37937 and 35726 in January and February of 2016 with a year-on-year increase of 1.7times.

n 據(jù)海關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,1月份,我國(guó)總計(jì)出口稀土永磁材料2152.4噸,環(huán)比下降10.6%(上月為2408.6噸),出口金額1.11億美元,環(huán)比下降8%。我國(guó)稀土永磁體的主要出口國(guó)家和地區(qū)為:美國(guó)260.1噸,占12.1%;丹麥:247.9噸,占11.5%;德國(guó)227.1噸,占10.5%;韓國(guó)212.3噸,占9.9%。

According to the customs statistics that in January the total export of China permanent magnet materials were 2152.4 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 10.6% (the last month was 2408.6 tons); and the export amount was 111 million dollars, with a month-on-month decrease of 8%. The main export countries and regions of rare earth permanent magnets are as follows: America 260.1 tons, accounting for 12.1%; Denmark 247.9tons, accounting for 11.5%; Germany 227.1 tons, accounting for 10.5%; Korea 212.3 tons, accounting for 9.9%.

2.業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

稀土行業(yè)深度報(bào)告:稀土行業(yè)有望在2016年走出寒冬

Depth report of rare earth industry: rare earth industry is expected to come out of the winter in 2016

我們認(rèn)為,中國(guó)稀土戰(zhàn)略資源地位不可動(dòng)搖,稀土價(jià)格將在供給縮減、行業(yè)深度整合和政策打黑執(zhí)行力度加大下開始中長(zhǎng)期修復(fù)。十三五期間稀土新材料迎來新機(jī)遇,稀土下游需求將逐步回暖,隨著去產(chǎn)能效果逐步顯現(xiàn),2016年稀土行業(yè)有望走出寒冬。

We believes that the strategic resource status of rare earth in China is unshakable, rare earth prices would start a medium and long term recovery under the circumstance of shrinking supply, industry integration and increasing implementation strength on cracking down illegal mines. During the 13th five-year plan, rare earth materials will meet a new opportunity, as the downstream market demands of rare earth will gradually rebound and with the DE-capacity effects gradually appeared, rare earth industry is expected to come out of the winter in 2016.

中國(guó)稀土對(duì)全球市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)地位仍然存在。USGS統(tǒng)計(jì)2015年中國(guó)稀土儲(chǔ)量5,500萬噸,占全球儲(chǔ)量的42%;中國(guó)稀土產(chǎn)量10.5萬噸,占全球比重的85%;中國(guó)稀土消費(fèi)量13.8萬噸,占全球稀土總消費(fèi)量的65%.

Chinese rare earth is still in the dominant position in the global market. And Chinese rare earth reserves is the top one in the world. Statistics from the USGS that Chinese rare earth reserves in 2015 is 55 million tons, which accounting for 42% of the global reserves; Chinese rare earth output is 0.105 million tons, which accounting for 85% of the global inputs; and China's rare earth consumption is 0.138 million tons, which accounting for 65% of the global total consumption.

六大稀土集團(tuán)整合即將完畢,聯(lián)合保價(jià)限產(chǎn),提振稀土價(jià)格。國(guó)家對(duì)稀土仍然采取嚴(yán)格管控制度,2016年稀土礦開采配額與前兩年相比幾乎不變,導(dǎo)致稀土產(chǎn)量高于配額的原因是盜采。六大稀土集團(tuán)先后加入保價(jià)限產(chǎn)陣營(yíng),實(shí)施10%左右的減產(chǎn),縮減稀土供給。

The integration of the sixth rare earth groups will soon be completed and they will united limited production price to boost the rare earth prices. In China, the rare earth was still strictly under control. The quota of rare earth mining in 2016 is almost unchanged compared to the previous two years, while the outputs of rare earth is much higher than the quota, which is mainly because of illegal mining. The sixth rare earth groups successively joined in the side of limited production price to boost the prices, reducing about 10% in production as well as the rare earth supply.

“十三五"稀土新材料迎來新機(jī)遇,加大私礦黑礦打擊力度,緩解產(chǎn)能過剩。在稀土行業(yè)里,“黑色產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈"供應(yīng)量占到總供應(yīng)量的50%左右,2016年,打擊黑稀土仍是國(guó)家政策監(jiān)管,私礦的不斷掃除將為稀土行業(yè)回暖打好基礎(chǔ)。

During the 13th five-year plan, rare earth materials will meet a new opportunity with strengthen the fight against illegal mining and ease the overcapacity. The illegal mining supply accounted for about 50% of the total supply in the rare earth industry, therefore the fight against the illegal mining is still the key point of China policy regulation. Furthermore, the continuous fight against illegal mining will lay a solid foundation on the rare earth industry rebound.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素:供給收縮未見成效;國(guó)內(nèi)稀土大集團(tuán)方案實(shí)際整合步伐低于預(yù)期;美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)繼續(xù)加息;稀土需求大幅回落;全球經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)下滑;金屬價(jià)格大幅下跌;供給側(cè)改革不及預(yù)期。

Risk factors: supply contraction without success; the actual integration of the sixth rare earth groups do not achieve the results as we expected before; the Federal Reserve interest rates continue to rise; the demand for rare earths significantly fell down; the global economy continued declining; metal prices fell sharply; result of supply-side reform is less than expected.

3.趨勢(shì)圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2016年03月19日

March 19th, 2016

提示：以上信息僅供參考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!